Chapter 4.14 Natural experiments in a hazard context
Chapter 4.14 describes the potential utility of natural experiments in health emergency and disaster risk management (Health EDRM), including:
- Process of conducting a natural experiment in a disaster context.
- Framework for, and outcomes of, natural experiments.
- Important strengths and limitations of natural experiments.
What is this chapter about?
Implementing experimental designs, such as randomized trials, to study cause-effect relationships might not be feasible or ethical in some natural or human-instigated hazard contexts. In these circumstances, natural experiments provide researchers with alternative ways to investigate topics of relevance to Health EDRM that are not amenable to those experimental designs.
This chapter discusses natural experiments as an alternative method for studying causal associations. It briefly describes the key components of a causal framework for natural experiments and looks at how natural experiments can be used in a hazard or disaster context. The chapter describes strengths and limitations associated with using natural experiments in Health EDRM and uses three case studies of natural experiments to illustrate these points.
Case studies presented in the chapter:
- Children’s vulnerability to weather shocks: A natural experiment from the October 1998 Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua.
- Residential relocation and obesity after a disaster: A natural experiment from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami.
- Differences in endemic goitre prevalence in the Karakoram mountains, north Pakistan: a natural experiment suggesting an unrecognized cause.
Authors: Kim HM, Stewart AG, Schluter PJ.
